Basis of the Research
Programme Outline
Research Themes
Functionality of Future Transport
Household Location Preferences
Location Preferences of Retail and Industry
Enhanced Liveability and Economic Growth

Basis of the Research
The New Zealand Government has set a high level target to halve per capita greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from domestic transport by 2040, and national strategies have been developed that specifically address this target. Whilst the imperative for change originates from international agreements, both under negotiation or agreed to (such as the Kyoto protocol), we need also to move to a lower energy society to remain competitive with other countries. As the world moves from a global single‑priced energy source (petroleum) to local sources, such as electricity and bio-fuels, a country's energy profile will increasingly define its economic success.

It is anticipated that changes in transport systems to achieve GHG emission reduction targets will initiate self-adjusting changes in urban form, so that relocation rather than outward expansion is the dominant influence. This research will enable New Zealand cities to seize the opportunities for improved wealth and liveability that arise through these changes in transport. There will be opportunities to direct resources to the types of infrastructure and urban forms that will better reflect New Zealand’s futures, and to strengthen the alignment between market processes and planning (governance) processes in shaping the form of our settlements. This research programme is unique because it represents a step change in thinking; moving from how to cope with transport change to how to take advantage of it.

Programme Outline
Our research approach will investigate four aspects of settlements in order to gain insight into cities as dynamic systems. These aspects are:

1. the functionality of future transport;
2. the influence of new transport systems on household location preferences;
3. the location preferences of retail and industry once transport substituting technologies have been allowed for; and
4. aligning governance and the market to deliver enhanced liveability and economic growth.

The work will be based around two future transport scenarios: one based on the transport system that is the 2030 target of the New Zealand Land Transport Strategy; and a scenario that is more restrictive with a strong passenger transport element. This scenarios approach gives the research the temporal component that is vital to understanding dynamic urban systems. We will use a metropolitan city and a provincial city to frame our studies, ensuring applicability to a range of New Zealand city types.

Research Themes
1. Functionality of Future Transport
This research stream will determine the comparative functionality of future transport systems and New Zealand's existing transport system. Transport system functionality comprises both physical and user functionalities. Physical functionalities are defined by quantities such as travel speed, cost, the nature of supporting infrastructure, and extent of coverage relative to settlement size. The dominant transport‑energy type is critical, including its sourcing and characteristics of distribution, storage, and transfer to the transport mode. In comparison, enabled user functionalities involve completing journeys to access destinations and goods and are measured by incurred travel time and costs.

Describing transport systems via functionalities simplifies and clarifies transport system options, making their evaluation more approachable and understandable for all, not just transport specialists.

The projects for this research stream will determine:

• the comparative functionality of current and likely future transport systems;
• the functionality of New Zealand's current transport system for the movements of light goods; and,
• the functionalities of economically viable passenger transport for New Zealand's settlement forms.

2. Household Location Preferences
The rationale of this research stream is that household location is chosen to optimise individuals’ lifestyles, with acceptable travel behaviours being a central element of this choice. Altered transport functionality usually induces altered travel behaviours in the short term, but in the longer term, households will relocate so as to restore an equivalent level of lifestyle. The potential economic dynamics of relocations complicate understandings as backflows of those with low transport needs and those downsizing to capitalise on the gain in value into the low value areas can occur.

The projects for this research stream will:

• develop and pilot a contingent behaviour research tool;
• apply the tool to determine household relocation decisions within current form; and,
• determine the characteristics of favoured locations that need to be retained so they remain attractive, and how less favoured locations can be made more attractive.

3. Location Preferences of Retail and Industry
This research stream investigates the ways retailing and commerce can shape New Zealand’s future urban form as the country adjusts to different transport scenarios.

The projects for this research stream will:

• analyse emerging trends in retailing to identify possible future retailing landscapes in New Zealand;
• establish the transformations in urban form that take place in New Zealand’s inner cities to become successful mixed use localities;
• predict the future form of New Zealand cities by determining the location preferences of businesses under future transport scenarios; and,
• determine the relationships between land values, the industry profile of land use, and urban form.

4. Enhanced Liveability and Economic Growth
The rationale of this research stream is that changes in urban form are governed by the nature of the engagement between the governance and market sectors. Key aspects of the engagement are the scale of the development, funding for and location of strategic infrastructure, risk sharing, and mechanisms for capturing either public or private benefits.

New Zealand has used a number of different forms of engagement over time, including:

• the public establishment of strategic infrastructure that creates land value increases that are exploited by the market through the development of adjacent settlements, e.g. the suburban tramways (c.1900) and the construction of motorways (c.1960s);
• the State establishing full transport, housing and commercial areas in the form of satellite cities, e.g. the development of Porirua in the 1960’s; and,
• regulations that are sometimes accompanied by dispensation incentives for preferred developments, within which the market acts, e.g. the Resource Management Act (1991) and District Plans.

This research stream will assess governance/market sector engagement models for application in New Zealand using a case study approach.